[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 262352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 86.2W AT 27/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF COZUMEL AND 140 MI...225 KM E OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 84W-89W. THE OUTER BANDS EXTEND TO 25N BETWEEN
80W-90W. RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 13N17W TO 9N20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM RINA ARE OVER THE SE GULF
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DISPLAYS VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS
UPPER AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A LIGHT ESE FLOW...BECOMING SOUTHERLY W OF 92W.
THE CONVECTION IN THE SE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS AS RINA APPROACHES THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RINA IS THE MAIN FOCUS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACROSS THE NW WATERS OF THE BASIN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE
DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN NOTICED ON
TPW PRODUCT. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N74W TO NEAR 12N76W. THE COMBINATION
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-81W. THIS TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS
THE FAR SW BASIN ALONG COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. SHORT RANGE
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM RINA IS DRAWING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS W OF 73W FROM
23N-25N WITH SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS DEPICTED FROM MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 32N72W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC WATERS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N44W TO
27N51W BECOMING DISSIPATING NEAR 24N60W TO 23N65W. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE THE GREATEST
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS NOTICED. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS
FROM 25N-30N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N39W GENERATING A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TO THE SW OF THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 14N44W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N35W ACROSS THE LOW CENTER TO 10N50W.
THESE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 40W-45W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N27W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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