[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 85.8W AT 26/1730 UTC OR
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...OR ABOUT 165
MI...270 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
85W-88W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING ALONG 13N17W 9N19W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N E OF 5W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
15W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA AT 33N82W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.
10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...W
CUBA... AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS DUE TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF RINA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD N
OVER THE SE GULF DUE TO THE APPROACH OF RINA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

HURRICANE RINA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HAS RECENTLY
WEAKENED A BIT. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO N VENEZUELA ALONG 70W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 67W-75W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
76W-82 DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR RINA TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N75W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 30N51W TO 26N60W TO 25N65W DISSIPATING TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 23N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL FRONT IS ALONG 26N57W 22N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N33W TO AN EMBEDDED
1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N44W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 41W-47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
29W-39W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE N
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OF CUBA DUE TO THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS OF
RINA. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N44W WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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