[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 85.3W AT 26/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 200 NM S-SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 178 NM E-SE OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING W AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W-86W WITH SCATTERED
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 81W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF GUINEA/
SIERRA LEONE AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE GULF
EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE GULF WHERE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO 23N88W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
JUST OFF THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY TO VERACRUZ MEXICO AND WITH VERY DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT WHICH IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL
QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HURRICANE RINA
CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
NE OVER THE SE GULF SAT AS TROPICAL STORM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RINA IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA EXTENDS ACROSS ALL
OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N73W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 63W-80W. THE SURFACE
LOW PREVIOUSLY 15N71W HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE ALONG 15N69W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN AND COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND THE
FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W-71W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
BETWEEN 71W-80W. HURRICANE RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW GRADUALLY
TUNING MORE NORTHWARD BEFORE ENTERING YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT
CONTINUING NE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE DISSIPATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS
ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS S OF 26N W OF 75W. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N W OF
55W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N53W TO 26N62W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 24N74W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
28N AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N
E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 29N32W. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED BY AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 19N42W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 14N57W AND SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N26W 17N32W THROUGH A 1007
MB LOW NEAR 12N45W TO 11N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N25W
19N29W TO 19N40W INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
41W-47W. WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE W ATLC ALONG THE N PERIPHERY TONIGHT INTO THU THEN SHIFT E
FRI ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
FRI NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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