[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260610 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

...UPDATED HURRICANE RINA...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 85.0W AT 26/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 205 NM S-SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195 NM E-SE OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING W AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 83W-87W WITH SCATTERED
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN
80W-88W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 8N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-25W AND FROM 6N-9N E OF 15W
TO INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE SE
GULF WHERE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM
FORT MYERS FLORIDA ALONG 25N85W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023
MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH VERY DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA GIVING THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WEAKEN THU IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE
TEXAS COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY
REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI
NIGHT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HURRICANE RINA CURRENTLY
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TURN NE THU
EVENING CONTINUING NE TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA SAT AND SUN
AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RINA IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA EXTENDS ACROSS ALL
OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N72W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE S NEAR 15N71W
WITH HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
68W-72W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND COUPLED WITH THE
CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 65W-78W. HURRICANE RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW GRADUALLY
TUNING MORE NORTHWARD BEFORE ENTERING YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT
CONTINUING NE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW AND MERGE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ON
THU. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
SAT AND SUN. A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN THU AND LINGER THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS ACROSS
CUBA TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS S OF 27N W OF 74W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N W OF 55W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W TO
27N63W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 24N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE FRONT AND
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N36W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N41W
AND SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N30W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO 14N40W AND A 1008 BM LOW NEAR 13N44W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 10N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N26W
19N28W TO 18N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-45W. WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE W ATLC ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WED NIGHT AND THU THEN SHIFT E
FRI ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
FRI NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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