[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA AT 25/1800 UTC IS NEAR 17.4N 84.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...OR ABOUT 290
MI...465 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 83W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 83W-86W...AND FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
14N68W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
MOVING W AND IS BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER ARUBA...CURACAO AND BONAIRE...THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING ALONG 4N16W 4N23W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N E OF 25W TO THE
PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AT 38N82W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WHERE THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF HURRICANE RINA ARE APPROACHING. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER
YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE SE GULF...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF RINA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE RINA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND A SURFACE LOW IS
OVER THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N68W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 63W-74W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR RINA TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY WHILE THE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN
SPREADS W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N65W TO 26N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE TROPICS...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 35W-38W. ANOTHER 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
42W-48W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO N OF
CUBA DUE TO THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS OF RINA. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N51W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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