[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 82.5W AT 24/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NICARAGUA
/HONDURAS BORDER...OR ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MOVING N-NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 18N82.5W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N80W TO 16N85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 13N21W 12N32W THROUGH A 1009
MB LOW NEAR 13N44W TO 11N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 18W ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 25W-34W...AND FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FURTHER S OVER THE GULF TO 22N
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING
FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ACROSS TEXAS AND NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE S GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF LIMITING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING INTO THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE COAST. OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM RINA IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N E OF 83W TO
ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ALONG
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA BIG
BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AND MOVE OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM RINA IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH RINA COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT TO THE SE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF RINA W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND N OF 14N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
74W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 58W/59W BETWEEN 11N-18N
WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 13N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-67W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM RINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND BE JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING W TO THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED
AND WILL MERGE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 27N W OF 77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N75W
TO ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR24N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
72W-77W. OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM RINA IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SW ATLC GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N W OF 76W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 58W/59W BETWEEN
11N-18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 13N. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-67W.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 34N42W. THE E/W UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC IS S OF 20N E OF 38W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE W ATLC TODAY AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE
BAHAMAS EARLY TUE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. AN E/W RIDGE
WILL BE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WED NIGHT AND THU THEN SHIFT E FRI
ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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