[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N33W TO A 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N36W...TO 8N37W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 17N29W...AND
FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N31W 13N36W 11N44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N55W 10N56W 7N57W.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N70W...
ACROSS THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...
TO WESTERN LAKE MARACAIBO OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN PART
OF LAKE MARACAIBO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DUE
TO THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES. THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SENEGAL NEAR 16N14W.
THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N39W 9N44W 9N48W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 10N50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 11N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 8W AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE
CONTINENTAL U.S.A. AND STRAIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 24N90W AND 22N98W AT THE MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA ALL THE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THAT HAVE COVERED THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS, ETC. FOR THE LAST
FOUR DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W...AND ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RACING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS TO THE WEST OF
70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT INCLUDES THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY
WATERS THAT IS NOT BEING AFFECTED YET BY THE HIGH CLOUDS IS THAT
SECTION THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
COASTAL AREAS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS INCLUDING SOUTHERN BELIZE...ACROSS CENTRAL GUATEMALA
AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN
HAITI...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND COASTAL NICARAGUA...NEAR PARTS OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N50W TO 25N54W AND 21N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THIS CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 46W
AND 52W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N38W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 34W. THE 29N38W LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER-SCALE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM
26N TO 34N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 30W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 44W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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