[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N31W TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N35W. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS
FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10N32.5W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N54W TO 9N57W AND IS MARKED
BY A INVERTED V-PATTERN IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN AFRICAN COAST
NEAR 10N15W TO 8N17W TO 8N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND
19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM CUTS ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N90W TO THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N83W. THE JET IS STRONGEST AT ITS
NORTHERN END WITH WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF THE JET AND
CONTINUING INTO TEXAS. A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS
ARE LOCATED E OF THE JET THAT INCLUDES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N87W. N OF THE FRONT TO 26N E OF 93W NE WINDS
ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. S OF THE FRONT E OF 91W
NE TO E WINDS ARE 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE BASIN WITH A HIGH CENTER
POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE A TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 19N81W AND A 1006 MB LOW JUST OFF
THE NE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 18.5N87W. THE LATTER FEATURE HAS A
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 18N INTO CUBA BETWEEN
78W AND 87W. MOVING TO THE EAST...THE WESTERN END OF A MIDDLE/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED E OF 70W. ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE MOVING W IN THIS AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED FROM EASTERN CUBA TO 25N70W
TO BEYOND 32N62W WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ALOFT LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM BEYOND
32N66W TO 28N72W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N62W TO 24N70W. LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS
ARE LOCATED W OF 73W WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS. MOVING DOWNSTREAM
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
10N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. THE TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF
20N55W IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A WESTERLY
JET IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 25N38W TO 28N30W TO THE AFRICAN COAST
AT 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB




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