[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N28W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N32W TO 6N35W. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 32W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS 17N50W 11N52W 7N55W.
NEARBY PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE NEARBY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 32N32W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N41W
17N49W TO 12N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO
25N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST AROUND 16N17W...
TO 15N20W AND 13N22W. MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
IN A FEW CLUSTERS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 30N OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
IS MOVING AROUND A TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN U.S.A. RESIDUAL
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 34N70W...TO 30N IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 24N90W...
BEYOND 17N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SAME LINE.
BEYOND 18N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. A COLD FRONT
CURVES THROUGH 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N78W IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 25N90W 23N94W...AND ENDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 60W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GUATEMALA LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE
MONSOON TROUGH CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE COLOMBIA
COAST NEAR 10N76W...INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...THROUGH THE
GUATEMALA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. A BROAD CYCLONIC SWEEP OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA TO THE WEST OF 70W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS TO THE NORTH OF 17N FROM HAITI WESTWARD...
ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR
11N74W...AND ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
82W AND THE NICARAGUA COASTLINE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CELLS
ARE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 72W. THE SURFACE
LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AMERICA
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO 16N75W...CURVING INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT.
RAINSHOWERS ARE AROUND HAITI. THE HAITI SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY
WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOONAL GYRE THAT
CURRENTLY COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE
FOUND IN GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND GRAPHICASTS ON
THE NHC WEB PAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 26N41W 17N49W TO 12N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N32W
TO 18N41W 9N47W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N30W TO 27N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
25N63W TO 16N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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