[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N25W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N31W TO 5N33W. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS 17N48W 12N50W 7N52W.
NEARBY PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE NEARBY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N33W
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N43W 17N49W TO
10N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 25N
BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST AROUND 16N17W...
AND IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 14N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 30N OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
IS MOVING AROUND A TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN U.S.A. RESIDUAL
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE AREA OF U.S.A. CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
GOES FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BEYOND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N IN FLORIDA...TO 24N90W IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND 18N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR.
A COLD FRONT CURVES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
27N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N78W TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND 26N IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W 23N94W...AND
ENDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 64W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN EAST CENTRAL GUATEMALA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GUATEMALA LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE
MONSOON TROUGH CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE COLOMBIA
COAST NEAR 10N76W...INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...THROUGH THE
GUATEMALA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. A BROAD CYCLONIC SWEEP OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA TO THE WEST OF 70W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS TO THE WEST OF 79W...AND IN CENTRAL
AMERICA CURRENTLY FROM COSTA RICA TO BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION CELLS ARE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W
AND 79W. THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH
CUTS ACROSS WESTERN HAITI TO 15N75W MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
10 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE AROUND HAITI...AND THEY ARE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH. THE HAITI SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY WILL BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOONAL GYRE THAT CURRENTLY COVERS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND GRAPHICASTS ON
THE NHC WEB PAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N33W UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N43W 17N49W TO 10N57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N32W TO
18N41W 9N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 30N33W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N33W TO 27N40W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N59W TO 22N68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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