[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS
FROM 13N29W TO 4N33W MOVING W 10 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE WAS
WELL DEFINED IN THE 30-METER GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION THERE WAS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUD FIELDS. SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
60-90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
18N46W TO 9N52W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND GOES-R PROVING GROUND MET-9 AIRMASS IMAGERY. THE WAVE AXIS
IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE WAVE IN
AN AREA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 45W-49W. AS THE WAVE TRACKS W OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT SATELLITE TRACKING OF THE AXIS TO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
17N16W TO 15N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WELL S OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF AN ARC FROM
9N22W TO 8N23W TO 9N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA
TO JUST N OF NAPLES FLORIDA THEN EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH 25N90W TO 23N95W THEN TURNS SOUTHWARD IN
TOPOGRAPHICALLY FORCED NORTHERLY FLOW TO JUST W OF MINATITLAN
MEXICO. A NARROW ROPE CLOUD DEFINED THE FRONT IN LATE DAY
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS DEPICTED AN AREA
OF INCREASING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE. FURTHER SE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR THE AXIS OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER N CUBA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AXIS OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL EXTENDS FROM SE
LOUISIANA TO A BASE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENT SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WAS ADVECTING HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE BULK
OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA PER
REGIONAL RADARS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC A BROAD 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E-CENTRAL
GUATEMALA NEAR 16N.590W AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
TO THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER TO THE LOW ITSELF. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM BELIZE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 21N85W INTO W-CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD CYCLONIC SWEEP OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM 18N-21N.
THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THUS AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO 13N75W MOVING WNW 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 70W-74W. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE LARGER MONSOONAL GYRE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND POTENTIALLY EXTEND THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND GRAPHICASTS ON THE NHC
WEB PAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO JUST S OF
PALM BEACH FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE
OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE N-CENTRAL COAST OF
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
64W-69W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 27N38W...THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO
25N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
29N. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB




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