[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 132346
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS LOW COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG


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