[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 14N24W TO
8N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE GFS
STREAMLINES AND IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. WAVE IS
ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IN
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 14N40W TO
9N42W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W TO 16N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 10N44W ALONG 8N52W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 13W-18W INCLUDING THE COAST OF GUINEA AND GUINEA BISSAU.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE US E OF THE PLAIN STATES AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AT 13/0900 UTC
ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA EXTENDING ALONG
24N88W TO 23N97W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS ALSO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS BRINGING DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE N GULF WITH ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES N
OF A LINE FORM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 25N91W TO THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AND A WEAK 1011 MB HIGH NEAR 27N90W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE S GULF ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E REMAINS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER S MEXICO THE S GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN
85W-93W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/PENINSULA AND THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY AND EXTEND FROM
TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE FAR
SE GULF FRI AND INTO THE W ATLC ON SAT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NW
OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH BROAD LOW PRES EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 79W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 79W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM CUBA JUST E OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA
JUST OFF THE E TIP OF JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
11N74W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 70W-77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH N NOW EXTENDING FROM 13N74W ALONG 14N82W INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ALONG 17N86W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E NEAR 17N94W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE TROUGH W OF
77W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND FURTHER ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE E
CARIBBEAN DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. BROAD LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 74W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N74W
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 21N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 70W-74W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 68W-73W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM
PUERTO RICO N ALONG 25N67W THEN NNE BEYOND 32N64W INDUCED BY A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 21N50W OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN
TO 10N59W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N39W TO 29N47W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N37W
ALONG 23N44W TO 21N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 45W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL LIFT N AND DISSIPATE LATER
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA WILL ENTER NW ATLC
TODAY AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT THEN
WEAKEN FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN THEN DISSIPATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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