[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG FROM 18N60W TO 10N62W. THIS POSITION
IS BASED ON THE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SINCE 06/1857 UTC. THIS IMAGERY APPEARS TO SHOW THAT A MASS
OF MOISTURE THAT I AM ASSOCIATING WITH THE WAVE HAS NOT MOVED
WESTWARD MUCH DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. MY POSITION IS
ACTUALLY TO THE EAST OF THE 11/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS POSITION
BY AT LEAST 120 NM. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE 24-HOUR TIME
PERIOD THAT ENDS AT 11/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE ARE
0.43 INCHES...AND 0.21 INCHES FOR TRINIDAD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 14N16W...AND IT
CONTINUES TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 5N24W 8N31W
7N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 43W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W IS
RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM HURRICANE JOVA
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE WEST CENTRAL
MEXICO COAST. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES LOUISIANA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
90W. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MIXES WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH THAT COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BEYOND THE PART OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W. DRY AIR
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS MIXED ITSELF INTO THE AREA OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO A 1007 MB FLORIDA BIG
BEND LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 29N84W 25N84W...CURVING TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH
IS MARKED BY A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE WATERS...TO THE 1009 MB
LOW CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN CLUSTERS OVERALL FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W
AND 96W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 22N90W TOWARD KEY WEST FLORIDA TO THE EAST OF 90W.
THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N80W...26N77W BY THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
21N75W IN CUBA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
OCCUPY THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 9OW ALSO REACH INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR AS 13N80W. DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...JUST TO THE EAST
OF JAMAICA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 400 NM TO THE EAST THE LINE THAT
MARKS THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NOW IS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN POINT OF CUBA...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT TRAILS THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE JAMAICA CHANNEL.
THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO 11N76W...
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND WESTERN EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 75W AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST
OF 90W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SWEPT
ACROSS FLORIDA...NOW TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N80W...26N77W BY THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 21N75W IN CUBA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TROUGH. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W BEYOND 20N72W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. ONE BRANCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS ENCOMPASSED BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
22N56W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N41W TO
22N51W TO 13N53W TO 9N55W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N37W TO 25N44W TO 23N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N40W 21N46W 19N56W 18N62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N
TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 30W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 24N24W 17N25W...IN DRY AIR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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