[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110517
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N59W TO 11N63W MOVING W AT
5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD
EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 58W-63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N20W TO 09N30W TO 05N46W TO 06N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 12W-21W...AND FROM 04N-09N
BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA AT 30N84W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO TAMPA FLORIDA AND TO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N83W 26N84W 24N88W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-88W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO S
OF 19N BETWEEN 90W-100W. EXPECT THE FLORIDA LOW TO MOVE NE OUT
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW LOW IS CENTERED E OF JAMAICA AT 18N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HAITI...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
72W-76W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE
ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM N
COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA N OF 8N W OF 73W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM W PANAMA TO
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N66W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 71W-76W. ON THE SURFACE A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N37W TO 23N50W 23N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS FROM 24N23W TO 17N24W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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