[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA
BORDER...ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. THIS LOW
CENTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND BECOME LESS DEFINED.
THIS LOW CENTER IS NOT FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER WATER. IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT
IS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME THAT
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE GIVEN IN THE
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 10N TO 19N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 13N17W...AND
IT CONTINUES TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N22W TO 7N35W
AND 7N47W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
5N12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 70W...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF HURRICANE JOVA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT WESTERLY
WIND FLOW REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 90W
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MIXES
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH THAT COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BEYOND THE PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
OCCUPY THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 9OW ALSO REACH INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR AS 13N81W. DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS EXTEND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...
COVERING HAITI AND IS OFFSHORE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
IT. SIMILAR RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FROM
21N TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM
16N75W TO 14N80W TO 12N83W...AND THEN ACROSS AND BEYOND
NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N56W TO 18N59W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W
25N43W 22N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W
25N46W 22N52W 19N59W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND
THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 31N BETWEEN
13W AND 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N19W TO 17N23W. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS ALONG THE TROUGH FOR THE
10/0600 UTC ANALYSIS HAS DISSIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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