[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091856 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2011

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
90W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTERN
CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND
88W...FROM A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST OF TAMPA TOWARD THE
APALACHEE BAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA BEYOND 32N TO THE WEST OF 70W.
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 27N...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO
THE WEST OF 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN SECTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY.
PLEASE READ STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT IS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 6N TO 17N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 18N16W...AND
IT CONTINUES TO 19N19W 10N22W 8N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N26W TO 8N33W 7N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 46W. STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND
51W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 70W...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH CUTS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. AN INLAND SURFACE
TROUGH REACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAINSHOWERS
COVER TEXAS ROUGHLY FROM HOUSTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI TOWARD
LAREDO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 88W...FROM A LITTLE BIT TO
THE EAST OF TAMPA TOWARD THE APALACHEE BAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA BEYOND
32N TO THE WEST OF 70W. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO
LESSER THAN GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO
RANGE FROM 10 TO 13 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 TO 18 FEET.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY
OCCUPY THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 9OW ALSO REACH INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR AS 13N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS EXTEND
FROM 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 70W AND THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA TOWARD HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
70W AND 75W. THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN
AREA OF SURFACE WIND SPEED DIVERGENCE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ALONG 12N75W...BEYOND NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 13N...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W
AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 39W AND 70W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT INTO WHICH PHILIPPE EVENTUALLY WAS ABSORBED ABOUT 24 HOURS
AGO. THAT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 27N44W 24N52W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N52W TO 23N60W TO 24N70W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N26W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 19W AND 31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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