[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 35.3N 46.0W AT 08/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 940 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 26 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-38N BETWEEN 43W-47W...AND WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N43W TO 27N48W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER ALABAMA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N-31N BETWEEN
66W-83W...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE MOST OF THIS AREA LIES BENEATH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL...THE WEAK LOWER PRESSURE
AREA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE NOTED N OF 26N W OF 65W IN THE SW NORTH
ATLC WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N51W TO 15N499W MOVING W 15-20
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD EXTENSION
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN
45W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN
48W-54W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
14N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N24W TO 04N37W TO 08N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04N-07N BETWEEN 20W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 32W-41W...AND FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA NEAR 33N87W WHICH
EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ALONG 85W OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...CONSIDERABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W.
FARTHER WEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS NEAR 30N89W TO EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 92W. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS FLORIDA REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE
GULF...WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N E OF 89W
THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N80W TO 17N86W. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED
EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN 67W-84W.
FARTHER SOUTH...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS WRAP INTO THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 11N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-85W...INCLUDING NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND
MUCH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 64W...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR E OF THE AXIS WHICH IS
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROVIDING FOR A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. THIS IS HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 65W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE NEAR 32N45W
ALONG 27N50W TO 24N57W TO 24N66W WHERE THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS
TO A SHEAR LINE WESTWARD TO 25N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
32N43W TO 27N48W. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THIS WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 45W-60W. IT IS
ALSO CURRENTLY IMPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR UPON PHILIPPE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA
NEAR 46N13W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ACROSS
THE AZORES TO 32N30W TO 23N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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