[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 080836
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011

AN AMSU-B PASS AT 0509 UTC AND ANOTHER ONE AT 0618 UTC CONFIRMED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED AND LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH EXCEPT THAT IT IS BECOMING
MORE ELONGATED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS KEPT AT 989 MB BASED ON A RECENT REPORT OF 990
MB FROM A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH OR BECOME
ABSORBED BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 21 KNOTS. AS THE STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE POST-TROPICAL
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 31.1N  50.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 33.5N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 37.5N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1800Z 41.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0600Z 44.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0600Z 52.5N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0600Z 58.0N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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