[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.7N 52.6W AT 08/0300
UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 630 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING E-NE AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SW SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER TO BE EXPOSED TO THE SW OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-33N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N43W TO 3N48W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W
TO 13N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N23W 8N38W TO 8N44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-43W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 43W-50W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN
30W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 5N15W TO LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE E GULF
OVER APALACHEE BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR
NAPLES. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS N GEORGIA TO S
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS ALSO DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE W GULF.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OVER N GULF AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE W
CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING
FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N76W OVER JAMAICA TO
17N78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W ALONG 12N77W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 71W-76W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE ABC ISLANDS TO PUERTO
RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 64W-71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 75W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-75W. THE SW TO W FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA SW OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W ALONG
27N72W TO 22N65W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THEN NW ATLC N OF 30N W
OF 53W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS JUST TO THE
W OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N E OF 60W ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC
STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE OF PHILIPPE NEAR 28N51W
TO 23N62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF 24N AND FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 48W-51W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW
IS E OF PHILIPPE EXTENDING FROM 22N27W CENTERED NEAR 31N35W TO
BEYOND 34N36W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W-36W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W TO 20N46W. THE STRONG SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH MON. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S FLORIDA OR THE BAHAMAS LATE SAT NIGHT
AND MOVE NW ALONG FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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