[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 071447
TCDAT2

HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011

SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EYEWALL OF PHILIPPE HAS
BEGUN TO DETERIORATE...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR AND
DECREASING SSTS WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE STORM.  ALSO...RECENT
VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
BECOME SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THESE CHANGES INDICATE THAT THE
HURRICANE IS STARTING TO WEAKEN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 75 KT.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT HIGH LATITUDES.

PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINING A FORWARD MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 14 KT.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS
ANTICIPATED AS PHILIPPE INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS
GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  07/1500Z 29.9N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 31.1N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 33.7N  49.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 37.0N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 41.0N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1200Z 47.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1200Z 55.0N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net