[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 070840
TCDAT2

HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED SOME...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY
MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL AN EYE ON
MICROWAVE DATA. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN NEAR
4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM CIMSS ARE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KNOTS.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.
PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 48 HOURS OR EARLIER.

PHILIPPE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES...PHILLIPE SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS PHILIPPE BECOMES
AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OR BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST DURING THE POST-
TROPICAL STAGE OF PHILIPPE WAS PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 29.6N  56.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 30.5N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 32.5N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 36.0N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 40.0N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0600Z 44.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0600Z 51.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0600Z 61.0N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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