[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 070255
TCDAT2

HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN RECENT HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN
OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
WERE T4.5 AT 0000 UTC AND THE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUE WAS
4.8.  USING THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KT.
PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS PATH. AFTER 36 HOURS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE 26C-ISOTHERM AND RECEIVE A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD HASTEN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT
THE TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. POST-
TROPICAL PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
GALE/STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OUT TO ABOUT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

THE HEADING HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 050/10.  THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD GIVE THE
CYCLONE A KICK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.
AFTER PHILIPPE MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AND BECOMES AN OCCLUDED
CYCLONE...THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND BRIEFLY DECELERATE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING A JUST-RECEIVED 0042 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 29.1N  58.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 29.9N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 31.1N  53.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 33.7N  49.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 37.3N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0000Z 42.0N  43.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0000Z 47.9N  38.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0000Z 58.0N  30.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


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