[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 060849
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE
SYMMETRIC OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM EARLIER ALSO
SHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...
THOUGH NOTHING RECENT HAS BEEN RECEIVED.  A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY WITH ONLY MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW PHILIPPE
ATTAINING HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY...WITH WEAKENING COMMENCING
BY LATE TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL LIKELY START IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND BE COMPLETE BY DAY 3.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/7.  PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
ACCELERATE TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.   THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY TO
THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH POORER
AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN THE LATER PERIODS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER
FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 26.8N  60.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 27.8N  59.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 28.8N  58.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 29.7N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 31.2N  51.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 38.0N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0600Z 42.0N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z 49.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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