[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR
26.4N 61.0W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE 26.5N 61W. PHILIPPE IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN
A SURFACE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. THE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N48W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N49W...TO 25N55W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO
31N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 31N60W AND IT CONTINUES
27N65W 24N73W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N73W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N86W IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 5N TO 13N.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 28W
AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N37W 14N41W 10N44W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 17N16W.
IT DOES NOT REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NO ITCZ EXISTS BECAUSE
OF NO TRADEWIND CONFLUENT FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
TO THE EAST OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 24N73W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM
24N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 16N68W...TOWARD THE BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITH
COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 16N81W...ABOUT 170 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE BORDER OF
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/
STATIONARY FRONT...

THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N60W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY AT 31N60W AND IT CONTINUES 27N65W 24N73W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N73W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 27N70W...TO 21N76W IN CUBA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/
STATIONARY FRONT...

BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 52W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N33W TO 24N41W TO 16N43W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 30N24W 23N30W 18N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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