[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.8N 61.3W AT 05/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 58W-62W.
PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SHEAR AND INTERACT WITH A
FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N29W TO 5N31W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ENERGY FROM THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO FRACTURE AND MOVE
NORTH DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS CYCLONIC
TURNING OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
25W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N36W TO 10N44W. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC.
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
MAINLY NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELDS OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...THE OCEANIC MONSOON
TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED...WITH THE REMAINING AXIS INLAND OVER
WEST AFRICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...
AND GUINEA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE BENIGN
WEATHER...A SHEAR LINE/REMNANT CLOUD AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE FAR E GULF BASIN ALONG 24N80W TO
23N86W. WHILE SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS...A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE FAR E AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOWED AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS N OF THE AXIS AND 5-10 KT WINDS S
OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO 18N94W GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW
BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N W
OF 78W. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 13N E OF 70W. LOOK FOR MORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SE AND S CENTRAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC AREA ALONG 31N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
23N75W. FROM THIS POINT THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A REMNANT
CLOUD/SHEAR LINE AXIS EXTENDING W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 24N80W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 77W. TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE IS JUST TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY TRACKING
NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT/TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N49W.
AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N34W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 30N30W TO
24N35W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
29W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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