[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR
24.6N 60.4W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 6 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
23N TO 25N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 8N25W 5N23W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N37W 12N41W 9N45W.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN STRETCHED ALONG A MORE EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTATION AS IT HAS BECOME CLOSER TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
11N18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 8N48W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W
AND 16W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 30W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROUGH
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N
TO 26N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 29N68W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CURVING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA...INTO WEST-CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N INLAND...FROM
GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N67W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N68W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CURVING TOWARD
THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...INTO WEST-CENTRAL GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N95W BEYOND
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE EAST OF 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF
80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 52W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N30W TO 24N36W TO 14N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N31W TO 29N29W TO 25N32W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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