[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR
25.8N 54.9W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN CUTTING ACROSS THE CIRCULATION THAT IS AROUND
PHILIPPE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N32W 11N35W 7N36W.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT MOST PROBABLY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...IS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
30W AND 39W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N29W TO 23N35W 17N44W AND 10N49W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N
TO 18N30W 14N40W 10N43W BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
9N20W AND 9N27W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N42W AND GOES TO
7N54W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL GUYANA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
THE ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 50W AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS ARE IN
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SHOWS UP IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AT
26N...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N70W...TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA...TO THE EAST
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 20N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N69W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W AT THE COLOMBIA BORDER...BEYOND
10N84W IN COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF 11.5N BETWEEN 75W AND
80W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...TO THE EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL HONDURAS TO 20N. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
16N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W ALONG THE BELIZE COAST. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 53W. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N29W TO 23N35W 17N44W AND 10N49W. PART OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS
AROUND TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N30W TO 29N31W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N35W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 34W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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