[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 56.6W AT 03/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 635 NM SE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-SW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE WILL TRACK W THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE N THROUGH THU THEN NE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N31W TO 8N34W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND MODEST AMOUNT OF CLOUD
SIGNATURE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
29W-38W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N36W
7N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 9N-12N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BUT CONTINUES TO EXTEND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF N OF
27N E OF 88W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO OVER W CUBA S OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 20N93W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA
ALONG 23N85W TO NE YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT N OF THE ABOVE SHOWER ACTIVITY. N
TO NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW GULF IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
GULF WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN TO N OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
MUCH OF THE GULF S OF 28N WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FAR N GULF THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S
OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED BY
A 1026 MB HIGH OVER ARKANSAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER U.S. EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE THAT
BUILDS S OVER THE E AND CENTRAL GULF THU THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CUTS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W BLOCKING THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 20N85W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. THIS
SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N74W ALONG 14N78W
TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER
COLOMBIA THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 11N76W INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION OVER THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N E OF 79W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N71W DRAWING DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 28N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N67W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM E OF THE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR
20N75W TO BEYOND 32N62W. A WEAK SURFACE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W TO THE MONA PASSAGE PRODUCING THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS EXPERIENCING. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 32N32W E OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE TO NEAR
18N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N30W
ALONG 30N29W 27N32W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 27N36W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM S AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W ATLC
STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN TUE THROUGH FRI THEN RE-BUILD ON SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net