[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 031454
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE JUST
RECEIVED A 1250 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATES THE CENTER MAY HAVE
DIVED SOUTH...OR EVEN RE-FORMED...NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THE
ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT.

PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY
SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...AND EVEN
STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...THERE IS NOT MUCH
REASON TO DOUBT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  PHILIPPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REACH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY DAY 3...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER
SOME STRENGTHENING AT THAT TIME.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKE
PHILIPPE TO OR JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF SHOWING THAT.  THE 00 UTC
CYCLE OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES IN THE
12 UTC CYCLE.

WITH THE RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE LONG-TERM 24-HOUR MOTION IS
250 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS STEERING
PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EXPANDING
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3.  A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION
IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES
VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 24.8N  55.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 25.0N  57.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 25.2N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 25.7N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 26.5N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 28.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 30.5N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 32.5N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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