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WTNT31 KNHC 030238
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF
NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.9N 58.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA.
OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENT
CANADA BUOY 44141 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96
KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H...AS THE CENTER OF
OPHELIA PASSED ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...WEST OF THE BUOY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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