[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 022042
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...CENTER OF OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 59.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER PASSING
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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