[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.3N 60.3W AT 02/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 495 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 29 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-42N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 51.7W AT 02/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 770 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE
OCCURRING FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N28W TO 15N26W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. WHILE THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH...VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC
TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 25W-30W. LOOKING AT THE UPPER AIR TIME SECTION
ANALYSES...IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
PASSED DAKAR SENEGAL BETWEEN 30/0000 UTC AND 30/1200 UTC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W
ALONG 15N20W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC AND
NORTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD...THE
GULF IS PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N WITH
MODERATELY DRY AIR W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NW
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING MODERATE SUPPORT FOR A LINGERING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS W-SW TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 21N93W TO 22N97W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 92W...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF S OF THE
FRONT W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE FRONT...OTHER THAN A
STABLE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THE BASIN AND
COASTLINE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPERIENCING
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES.
THIS UPPER AIR REGIME ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 13N84W TO 20N84W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
16N W OF 81W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SW CARIBBEAN AS GENERALLY E-NE TRADES CONVERGE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N77W
TO 15N83W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 14N56W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE NE FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...OVER THE EXTREME FAR SE CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD AND PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT
DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SW OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF
13N E OF 69W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC AND
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 29N69W TO 25N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WITH THE HELP OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 64W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AND AS OF THIS MORNING HAD A
WELL EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. PHILIPPE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-64W. OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N25W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO A BASE
NEAR 21N36W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N14W TO 29N17W. WEST
OF THE FRONT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N22W TO
28N28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE THESE BOUNDARIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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