[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 021746
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  40A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
200 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA MOVING FASTER AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 60.3W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA.
OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER
PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net