[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 021444
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 60.9W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA.
OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER
PASSING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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