[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 37.5N 61.2W AT 1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE
AT 26 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 34N-38N BETWEEN 58W-63W.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 50.8W AT 0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N16W TO 7N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO
THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
4N-14N E OF 35W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 100-200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
W FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF WITH A 70 KT JET STREAK MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR S-ERN BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THIS SCENARIO
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
FROM NEAR 24N81W ALONG 22N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N97W.
THIS FRONT CARRIES NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INLAND
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
NRN GULF ARE MEASURING 20-30 DEGREES DROP IN DEW POINTS
DEPICTING THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SUPPRESSING THE FRONTAL CONVECTION AND LEADING TO
REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE W OF 93W S OF 23N. THIS AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW FLOW ALOFT IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW BASIN CARRYING
CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W OF
83W...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF
BELIZE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW AND ELEVATED VALUES OF
MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF 18N BETWEEN
74W-76W...GENERATED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS OVER
THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 13N W OF 75W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS SRN NICARAGUA INTO NRN COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT ARE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 17N E OF
75W...PROVIDING A FAIR WEATHER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN WITH 5-15 KT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
ERN CONUS SEABOARD. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE W ATLC...EXTENDING ALONG 31N69W TO ACROSS THE NRN
BAHAMAS ALONG 25N77W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N81W. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT IS WELL REMOVED E OF IT...
WITHIN 60-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 25N72W TO 22N76W. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS BETTER ASSOCIATED TO THE DIVERGENCE FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HURCN OPHELIA IS E OF THE FRONT N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A NEARLY STNRY 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 40N45W. T.S. PHILIPPE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE FAR
ERN N ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 32N13W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N19W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH SAHARAN AIR DUST IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GARCIA




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