[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 33.8N 62.2W AT 0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-37N BETWEEN 58W-65W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.4N 49.8W AT 0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 08 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 47W-51W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N16W TO 7N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO
THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
4N-14N E OF 35W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 100-200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WSW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF...WITH A 70 KT-PLUS SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR S-ERN BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS
AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WSW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM NEAR 24N81W ALONG 22N90W TO TAMPICO
MEXICO NEAR 22N97W. THIS FRONT CARRIES NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HOWEVER...INLAND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MARINE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NRN GULF ARE MEASURING 20-30 DROPS IN
DEW POINTS DEPICTING THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPRESSING THE FRONTAL CONVECTION AND LEADING
TO REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES ON NIGHT VISION SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 93W S OF 23N. THIS
AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW FLOW ALOFT IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW BASIN CARRYING
CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W OF
84W...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF
BELIZE DUE TO CONVERGING FLOW AND ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-76W...
GENERATED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS EASTERN CUBA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR SW
BASIN S OF 13N W OF 78W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM SRN NICARAGUA INTO NRN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 17N E OF 75W...PROVIDING A FAIR WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH 5-15 KT EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
ERN CONUS SEABOARD. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE W ATLC...EXTENDING ALONG 31N70W TO ACROSS THE NRN
BAHAMAS ALONG 25N77W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N81W. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT IS WELL REMOVED E OF IT...
WITHIN 60-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LONE EXTENDING FROM 30N65W
TO 20N75W. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
BETTER ASSOCIATED TO THE DIVERGENCE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. HURCN OPHELIA IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 32N. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE N CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A NEARLY STNRY 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N45W.
T.S. PHILIPPE MOVES ACROSS THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE FAR ERN N ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM
32N14W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH SAHARAN AIR DUST IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE MOVING OFF WEST AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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