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WTNT31 KNHC 020252
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH 140 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 62.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.
THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA
OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A
RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN


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