[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.5N 62.4W AT 02/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 23 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 60W-65W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 49.1W AT 01/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 08
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 45W-50W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W
TO 10N20W TO 07N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO 06N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 14W-22W...AND FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 26W-30W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN
47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S
TEXAS ALONG 26N80W 24N90W 26N97W. THIS FRONT IS PRESENTLY VOID
OF ANY CONVECTION. THERE IS HOWEVER A 2O DEGREE FAHRENHEIT DROP
IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DEPICTING A DRIER AIRMASS N OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 90W-96W. THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF HAS 10-15
NORTHERLY WINDS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 25N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N GULF N OF
25N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N DUE TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA AT
26N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N
BAHAMAS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 68W-72W. TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS
OPHELIA AND PHILIPPE SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N15W TO 26N23W MOVING E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE E TO THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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