[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 011445
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

OPHELIA HAS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE HAS A CLEAR EYE
SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ALTHOUGH BOTH
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...THEY
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. BECAUSE OPHELIA IS
STILL EMBEDDED IN LIGHT SHEAR AND MOVING OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA
REACHES COOLER WATERS...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED AND IS VERY
CONSISTENT AT LEAST TO 48 HOURS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
KEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 29.5N  62.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 32.5N  62.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 37.0N  61.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 42.0N  58.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 46.5N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1200Z 50.5N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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