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WTNT31 KNHC 011443
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. OPHELIA HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
21 MPH...33 KM/H. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.  A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD
BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  OPHELIA IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN
NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TODAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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