[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W ALONG 6N28W 7N38W
TO NEAR 6N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. DRY
STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH PATCHES OF
SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF
24N E OF 93W WITH DENSE SEA FOG OVER THE NE GULF N OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT AT 30/0900 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR TAMPA TO 27N88W. CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH
IN THE SW GULF NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN
AT 30/0900 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA JUST E OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 15N81W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF  NICARAGUA/
COSTA RICA BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT
TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 14N E OF 72W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN
S OF 14N E OF 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 10N81W TO ACROSS
PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA E OF 79W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB
LOW N-NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE S OF GUADALOUPE TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN THIS MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY
THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 30/0900 UTC NEAR 32N72W ALONG
27N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 24N77W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES OVER CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FOLLOWING THE FRONT EXTENDING AT 30/0900 UTC
FROM 31N78W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WITH DENSE SEA
FOG WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE TROUGH TO FLORIDA AND WITHIN 90 NM SE
OF THE TROUGH TO 80W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC BETWEEN 56W-70W AND EXTENDS S TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 28N65W AND
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N64W ALONG
25N61W TO A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW N-NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
22N59W CONTINUING SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR IS W
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE W ATLC FRONT. A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM THE
W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N40W ALONG 23N50W TO 33N54W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR
9N61W ALONG 12N59W TO 16N57W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 52W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM NEAR
20N54W TO 32N59W. A PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
29N42W TO 25N46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER SPAIN. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1004
MB LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT.

THE VERY ACTIVE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON ENDS TODAY WITH A TOTAL OF
19 NAMED STORMS...7 WHICH WERE HURRICANES AND 3 WERE MAJOR
HURRICANES. ONE UNNAMED STORM WAS INCLUDED TO THE STORM COUNT
AFTER A THOROUGH POST-ANALYSIS. ONLY 3 STORMS AFFECTED THE
UNITED STATES...DON IRENE AND LEE. IRENE WAS THE ONLY HURRICANE
AND THE FIRST LANDFALLING HURRICANE SINCE IKE IN 2008.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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