[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SOUTHEASTERN GHANA. THE ITCZ STARTS
NEAR COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 7N26W AND
9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER
OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA/WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...TO 27N86W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WESTWARD BEYOND 23N ALONG THE MEXICO GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
THROUGH 23N80W IN CUBA...THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO
17N82W...AND CUTTING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS THAT SPANS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND TO THE WEST OF 80W.
WITHIN 250 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH 30N82W 23N83W 16N84W. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND STREAMING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF 70W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 27N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N67W...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
21N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 17N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N64W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 29/1200 UTC WAS 1.75 INCHES FOR
BARBADOS...FOR GUADELOUPE 0.60 OF AN INCH...FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO 0.08 OF AN INCH...AND FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
0.28 OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION STILL IS POSSIBLE FOR BARBADOS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 21N
BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N60W 25N62W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 27N TO 32N.
THIS TROUGH IS THE REMAINS OF THE 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF 24 HOURS AGO. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 26N42W 21N45W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MOROCCO TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS...THROUGH 28N22W TO 27N35W TO 29N40W. THIS TROUGH
EXISTS IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED
SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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