[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA JUST INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 10N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N16W ALONG 7N23W 7N33W 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 21W-41W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 36W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF MOVING INTO
THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0900 UTC EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF LINE FROM
NAPLES FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA JUST W OF HAVANA. DRY STABLE AIR IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE E GULF E OF LINE FROM
THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
18N93W AND CLEARING SKIES FURTHER W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS W
OF THE FRONT WITH A 1023 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST W OF
TUXPAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 95W THU THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AT
29/0900 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CIENFUEGOS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200/275 NM W OF THE FRONT INCLUDING PORTIONS OF W CUBA
AND HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 76W
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-76W. DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND N OF 13N BETWEEN 65W-76W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W
ALONG 9N79W TO ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 9N83W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 64W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N63W TO NEAR 13N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT
NE THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N69W TO NEAR 27N73W AND CONTINUES TO RETREAT NE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC
NEAR MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 30N78W JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA E COAST TO OVER CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR SAGUA LA
GRANDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
150 NM W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
NORTH CAROLINA AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS N ALABAMA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO GIVE THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 62W
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N63W SW TO INTO THE
N CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUPPORTING A
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W ALONG 24N61W
INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W ALONG 31N63W TO 25N67W. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N51W ALONG
23N51W TO 33N54W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300
NM OF LINE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM NEAR 13N60W ALONG
22N55W TO 30N51W. THE PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NOW A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N40W TO TO 26N42W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 350 NM NE OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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