[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W ALONG
5N23W 6N38W TO 8N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
23W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR MEMPHIS TENNESSEE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT
29/0300 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO HOMESTEAD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO OVER CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. DRY STABLE
AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM FROM PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO CENTRAL YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W AND CLEARING SKIES TO THE
W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE
SW GULF NEAR 21N95W AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF BY SUNRISE TODAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 92W THU THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN AT 29/0300 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR COLON W OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180/250 NM W OF THE FRONT INCLUDING W CUBA
AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 76W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 65W-76W. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND N OF A
LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 12N76W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W
11N78W TO ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
NEAR 9N83W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 66W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W
TO NEAR 13N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN TUE THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N69W TO
JUST E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N76W AND CONTINUES TO
RETREAT NE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0300
UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
30N79W ACROSS THE SE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST
PALM BEACH TO HOMESTEAD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER
CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120/150 NM W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE N 31N TO INLAND OVER NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO GIVE THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC W OF 65W FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N62W
S-SW TO INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS SUPPORTING A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH FROM 31N57W ALONG 25N62W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N52W ALONG 23N51W TO 33N55W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N57W ALONG 21N57W TO 30N56W. A PERSISTENT
WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N41W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ABOVE SURFACE LOW ALONG 41W/42W
BETWEEN 22N-26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 350 NM NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N73W TO E CUBA TUE NIGHT THEN WILL CONTINUE E MERGING WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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