[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2335 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
11N14W QUICKLY ENDING AT 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W
ALONG 7N35W TO 7N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
23W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
WATERS ACROSS THE STRAITS THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT IS MOVING
FAIRLY QUICK INTO THE ATLC BASIN. GUSTY WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT
ARE IN ITS WAKE...GENERATING SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL. THE
FRONT IS LEAVING A TRAIL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 83W ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THIS FRONT IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAR NE BASIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY MOVE INTO THE
WRN ATLC BASIN TONIGHT LEAVING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
GULF...AS SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GULF OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...
CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS WRN CUBA TO ERN HONDURAS ALONG 23N82W
TO 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND START TO
BECOME STATIONARY AFTER THE 24 HOURS PERIOD. DRY AIR ALOFT AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS UPPER AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-79W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE FAR ERN
CARIBBEAN IS IMPACTED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N65W TO 10N66W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES OVER THIS
AREA...AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF 65W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NE OUT
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
ENTERING THE WRN ATLC W OF 77W...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
INLAND MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE CONUS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLC TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING IS
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W
OF 64W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N62W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N53W TO 24N62W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS SUPPORTING A
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30N54W TO THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
11N56W. FARTHER E...A WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N40W
CAUSING NO ACTIVE WEATHER. TO THE S OF THIS LOW...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N38W TO 22N40W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1025
MB HIGH NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N15W PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER E OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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