[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
11N15W QUICKLY ENDING AT 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W
ALONG 5N28W TO 7N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 30N86W TO 24N89W INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO
ALONG 19N91W. A STRONG N TO S SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN
ITS WAKE...GENERATING NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
FAR ERN GULF IS STILL UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY DRY
AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE W
ATLC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE
BASIN REACHING FLORIDA BY MONDAY. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE CRITERIA DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE WNW CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
17N71W TO 11N84W...PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA.
THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS IMPACTED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 18N64W TO 13N67W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES HIGH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES OVER THIS AREA...AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 13N E OF 68W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN
2 AND 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
FLOODING. MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 36N67W IS MAINTAINING
FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N54W
TO 27N60W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
INHIBITING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE E AND SE
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18N64W TO 30N47W. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS REVEALED A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION FROM 25N56W TO 19N59W. FARTHER E...A WEAK 1017 MB LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 31N38W CAUSING NO ACTIVE WEATHER. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A
1030 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N19W PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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