[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N20W TO 05N37W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-10N BETWEEN 19W-35W...AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 35W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG 82W AND THE EASTERN
U.S. SEABOARD TO THE MID-ATLC REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS... ONE
LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W...AND THE OTHER
APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 85W ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N71W. OVER
THE WESTERN GULF...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA S-SW TO SOUTH OF
TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. STRONG N-NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG S-SE FLOW OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF 85W.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER
W-SW FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM
11N81W TO 19N71W. THIS AREA IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SW NORTH ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WITH NE TO E WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 20N W
OF 86W. FARTHER EAST...AN SW NORTH ATLC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS
SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 20N74W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ANALYZED ALONG 10N...S
OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-80W. ELSEWHERE E OF 73W...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N65W TO 20N64W. THIS
MORNING...THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 33N53W TO 28N64W TO A BASE NEAR 20N74W.
THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 32N55W SW TO 25N59W. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF
THE FRONT WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N62W TO
32N47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N71W. NE TO E WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N25W. A SURFACE LOW HAS DRIFTED
WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY
REMAINS ANALYZED FROM 23N34W TO 30N35W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN






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