[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N18W ALONG
6N22W 7N31W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 89W FROM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO INLAND
OVER THE SE CONUS AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER TROUGHS. THE
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH IS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS NW
MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE
THE OTHER IS OVER THE W ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE E COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
CEDAR KEY TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS
PROVIDING THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW. REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
LINE FROM 22N87W TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS
CHRISTI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF
THIS EVENING THEN EXTENDING FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BY MON MORNING AND MOVING E OF THE GULF MON NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR SAGUA LA GRANDE TO NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS OVER
HISPANIOLA. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A DISTINCT BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA ALONG 17N80W TO SE NICARAGUA
NEAR THE COSTA RICA BORDER DIVIDING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR TO THE W AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR TO
THE E. HOWEVER...FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
18N W OF 84W. OTHERWISE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-82W WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MOIST SECTOR. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM SAINT LUCIA
OVER TOBAGO TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE GUYANA AND
VENEZUELA BORDER BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SUN. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E SUN
NIGHT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE INTO A
SHEAR LINE BY WED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN MON WHERE IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 26N71W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR SAGUA LA GRANDE
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 31N57W AND A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N56W TO
29N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 25N62W
THEN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO
NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF
THE LOW WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N60W TO 33N57W AND
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N31W WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NW TO BEYOND 33N34W AND SE TO 22N27W
SUPPORTING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A
1016 MB LOW NEAR 31N37W AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N32W ALONG 28N31W TO 23N37W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 27N-31N. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CENTERED NEAR 30N43W WITH A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM N-NE OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
MON REACHING FROM 31N76W TO W CUBA TUE BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED. THE CENTRAL
ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SUN AND DISSIPATE
BY TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net