[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N17W TO 06N30W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 21W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE GULF BASIN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W TO 30N87W
THEN INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE LOCATED OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC...AND THE OTHER APPROACHING THE GULF FROM THE WEST
CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N78W. THIS IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH
BRISK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD N OF 24N BETWEEN
84W-93W. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WITH
IT N-NW GALE FORCE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
21N79W TO 17N85W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W. WITH VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER...SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM ACTIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO
10N79W TO INLAND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WHILE MOST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 74W-84W IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE
EXPERIENCING INCREASED CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING AND GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF BARBADOS FROM 08N56W TO 14N58W. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
EAST OF THE AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC...BUT AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD INCREASED CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 33N59W TO 27N70W TO A BASE OVER
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 25N63W TO HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 18N TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF
54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N78W. NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N33W AND
SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N36W. A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED SE OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM 32N33W
TO 27N33W TO 21N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 28W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN





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